Strategy Against Iran: Was There a Longer Game?

What started as a nuclear deterrence mission may have led to the restructuring of oil infrastructure in the region, leaving Iran without nuclear weapons as well as oil revenue and strategic leverage. Was the Strait of Hormuz a risk the US inadequately prepared for, or part of a long-term play to weaken Iran by taking away one of its key sources of revenue and leverage over other nations? Threatening the Strait of Hormuz remains Iran’s most observable source of strategic leverage. In doing so, the pressure put on other nations could have backfired for Iran because now there is much discussion of building infrastructure to bypass Iran completely. What started as criticism that the US underestimated the risk to Hormuz is evolving into a broader effort to eliminate that risk altogether by bypassing the Strait.

Gulf producers are now accelerating billions of dollars in pipelines and alternative export routes designed specifically to bypass Hormuz. (The Times⁠) Iraq is pursuing routes toward the Mediterranean (Reuters⁠); Saudi Arabia can move more oil toward the Red Sea (U.S. EIA⁠); and the UAE is expanding capacity toward Fujairah. (U.S. EIA⁠) Some estimates suggest that infrastructure already underway or contemplated could eventually allow a majority of prewar Gulf oil exports to avoid Hormuz. (The Times⁠)

The nuclear threat was used as the reason to attack, but the risk of depending on the Strait of Hormuz gives the world a reason to take away Iran’s key leverage. If and when this happens, Iran will be far more compromised economically and geopolitically, not only weakening their nation, but the other forces in the region that it supports.

Email: info@proxonyx.org

Phone: +1-425-944-1361

© 2025. All rights reserved.